Anthony Ulwick starts from a simple but powerful premise: when customers execute a job, they try to minimise or maximise a set of metrics. He calls these outcomes (desired results), and they are the fundamental unit of innovation.
An outcome is not a feature or a need — it is a success metric from the customer's perspective. For instance, when checking into a hotel, a customer measures "minimise wait time at reception" or "maximise clarity of information about available services". Those are the units ODI works with.
The ODI process identifies, structures and quantifies all these outcomes, then calculates which are underserved (high importance, low satisfaction) — that is the real space for innovation.
At the quantitative heart of ODI is a formula that transforms importance and satisfaction data into innovation opportunity scores.
The formula weights relative dissatisfaction: if something is very important but already well covered, the opportunity is low. If something is very important and poorly resolved, the opportunity is maximum. The max(I-S, 0) ensures over-served outcomes don't penalise the score.
ODI classifies all outcomes into four quadrants that define innovation strategy.
High importance + low satisfaction. This is where to invest. Customers need it and nobody solves it well.
High importance + high satisfaction. The market is already well served. Investing more here yields diminishing returns.
Low importance + low satisfaction. Customers don't care. Ignore or cover the bare minimum.
Low importance + high satisfaction. You're investing in something customers don't care about. Candidate for elimination.
"Simplifying is not impoverishing the product; it's eliminating everything that doesn't contribute to real customer progress. The next winner in an overserved market is almost never the most complete. It's the most convenient."
— Toni Guitart, Innovation Newsletter, Chapter 39
Ulwick describes every job as having a lifecycle with 8 universal phases. The Job Map decomposes the core job into these phases, enabling outcome identification at each stage.
The customer sets objectives and plans the work.
Gathers the inputs needed to begin.
Sets up the environment to execute the job.
Verifies readiness to begin.
The core of the job. The most critical phase.
Evaluates progress while executing.
Adjusts the process if something isn't working.
Completes the job and handles the final outcome.
A real analysis of how to apply ODI to identify the most valuable improvement opportunities in a hotel stay.
| Guest job | Key outcome | Importance | Satisfaction | ODI Score | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleep | Minimise ambient noise in the room | 9.2 | 5.1 | 13.3 | High |
| Sleep | Maximise darkness in the room | 8.7 | 5.8 | 11.6 | High |
| Check-in | Minimise wait time at reception | 8.9 | 5.3 | 12.5 | High |
| Shower | Maximise water pressure in the shower | 8.5 | 6.2 | 10.8 | Medium |
| Work | Maximise desk space and ergonomics | 7.8 | 5.5 | 10.1 | Medium |
| Wi-Fi | Minimise connection time to the network | 9.0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | Medium |
| Breakfast | Maximise variety of healthy options | 7.2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | Low |
Illustrative data based on the analysis described in Chapter 23 of Toni Guitart's Innovation Newsletter.
The same process applies directly to the design and evolution of software products. User outcomes are the compass for the roadmap.
The hotel analysis above is developed step by step in Chapter 23 of my newsletter: how to apply ODI to the hotel guest experience, from outcome collection to final prioritisation.
Read Chapter 23 →Instead of roadmaps based on gut feel or the loudest customer's requests, ODI generates a roadmap based on the objective opportunity score. Features with the highest ODI scores go first.
Overserved markets accumulate features nobody uses. ODI identifies what is overserved and enables the difficult but necessary decision to not add or even remove unnecessary functionality.
Product-Market Fit is not a feeling. It's when your product consistently resolves the outcomes with the highest ODI scores in your segment. ODI makes PMF measurable and repeatable.